Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United

[JackDee]

Marseille face Newcastle at the vellodrome for a chance to compete in the final of the uefa cup. For Marseille it's basically win and they are in, With any other result except the goalless draw -which will take both to overtime- they are out.

Marseille where arguably better than Newcastle in they away game, and missed a fair share of chances to score. Newcastle on the other hand have several key absences, irreplaceable central defender woodgate and right winger dyer as well as allen shirer's partner up front welsh forward bellamy. It's been an unimpressive season for newcastle so far, at home they've drawn more games than they won, with a massive 14 draws over 13 wins, and 8 defeats, ranking a mediocre 6th just above such average teams as bolton and fulham. As long as they competed against sub par uefa opponents they marginally edged them to advance. Of course they trashed 13th spanish seed Mallorca and overcame PSV, but neither are anything to write home about.

Right now it's different, marseille are better and determined to win, they ve overcame classy (albeit problematic) teams such as liverpool and inter milan, they'll play at home with a full squad eager to repeat their copatriots monaco yesterday's success.

At 2.05 odds (betfair) for Marseille i am willing to believe that the french stand more than 50% chances to win and qualify. And i ll be on them.

I ll also put something down in terms of booking odds. At betfair again the odds of 9 pts and above in bookings (2 points per yellow card, and 5 for a red one) i am willing to bet that we'll see 5 yellow cards upwards in this tough, physical and crucial game. The ref. which is always THE foremost factor in such bets is slovakian Lubos Michel. His past stats wrt bookings are as follows:

Games refereed by Lubos Michel in 2003/2004 Yellows Reds
European Championships Ireland 1 - 1 Russia 06-09-2003 6 0
European Cup Milan 1 - 0 Ajax 16-09-2003 3 1
European Cup Lyon 1 - 1 B. Munich 21-10-2003 4 0
European Cup Olympiakos 3 - 0 Galatasaray 05-11-2003 6 2
European Championships Holland 6 - 0 Scotland 19-11-2003 6 0
European Cup Arsenal 2 - 0 Lokomotiv Mos. 10-12-2003 3 1
European Cup Juventus 0 - 1 Deportivo 09-03-2004 5 0
European Cup Real Madrid 4 - 2 Monaco 24-03-2004 3 0
Games: 8 Yellow Cards: 36 Red Cards: 4

Games refereed by Lubos Michel in 2002/2003 Yellows Reds
European Cup PSV Eindhoven 0 - 4 Arsenal 25-09-2002 2 0
European Championships Spain 3 - 0 Northern Ireland 12-10-2002 2 0
European Cup Milan 2 - 1 B. Munich 23-10-2002 5 0
European Cup Roma 1 - 3 Arsenal 27-11-2002 3 0
European Cup Real Madrid 2 - 1 B. Dortmund 19-02-2003 3 0
European Cup Ajax 1 - 1 Valencia 11-03-2003 7 0
International Ukraine 1 - 0 Latvia 02-04-2003 0 0
UEFA Cup Celtic 2 - 3 Porto 21-05-2003 8 2
European Championships Norway 1 - 1 Romania 11-06-2003 3 0
Games: 9 Yellow Cards: 33 Red Cards: 2

Games refereed by Lubos Michel in 2001/2002 Yellows Reds
World Cup Holland 2 - 2 Ireland 02-09-2000 0 0
European Cup Porto 2 - 2 Grasshoppers Z. 08-08-2001 0 0
World Cup Scotland 0 - 0 Croatia 01-09-2001 5 0
European Cup Dynamo Kiev 2 - 2 B. Dortmund 11-09-2001 3 0
World Cup Romania 1 - 1 Georgia 06-10-2001 2 0
European Cup Deportivo 1 - 1 Lille 23-10-2001 4 0
European Cup Galatasaray 2 - 0 PSV Eindhoven 30-10-2001 5 0
International Poland 0 - 0 Cameroon 14-11-2001 0 0
UEFA Cup Brondby 0 - 3 Parma 06-12-2001 0 0
European Cup Boavista 0 - 0 B. Munich 20-02-2002 4 0
European Cup Porto 2 - 1 Panathinaikos 12-03-2002 3 1
UEFA Cup Inter 0 - 1 Feyenoord 04-04-2002 4 0
European Cup Man Utd 2 - 2 B. Leverkusen 24-04-2002 3 0
World Cup Paraguay 2 - 2 South Africa 02-06-2002 8 0
Games: 14 Yellow Cards: 41 Red Cards: 1


This guy averages a stunning 8.1 points per game over the past three years, and that's including all sorts of fixtures, both important ones, and negligible ones. He's one strict ref for sure. If you take a look at him this year only 2 out of his 8 games have gone under 9 points and most where considerably higher.

Betfair's 2.0 for the over 9.0 points are more than generous in this spot, and i am on it for double units, making this my bet of the day.

Enjoy.

Jack.

 

[matahari]

Jack,

Where the referee stats are from ?

Thanks in advance.

 

[souzathelooza]

Jack, It looks like we have similar
views on this one......

It's Marseille Today.

Goodluck

 

[JackDee]

mata, referee data is from www.soccerbase.com , a really worthwhile site this one, with an extensive database of referees, players, managers, grounds etc. and a search facility.

souza, best of luck partner, let's hope them french fries deliver against the english fish and chips, oh, and both foul and get booked a lot in the process btw.

 

[JackDee]

A good night this one, the french delivered (didier drogba is one hell of a player by the way, fast, powerfull, and extremely technical) a convincing win over newcastle, and, as expected, both the referee and the players made sure the bet of the day on the match's bookings was a winning one with 5 yellow cards. Clockwork.

(btw i put some change down at the local bookie while i was out buying groceries, both uefa games 1/1 half time full time, at around 4.5 combined odds (the vig here is preposterous), so if valencia hold on to their half time win these welcome extra cash will round up the day nicely.)

bol. Jack.

p.s. one a funny note, whenever i watch this clown of a goalie bartez play i keep wondering how this joker has made tons of money while he's so damn incapable, and makes one unforced error after the other, what a loser.

 

[souzathelooza]

I think age has caught up with Bartez.
French Footballer of the year Didier Drogba
took care of us today Jack.

I'm looking at Marseille to win the whole pig.

 

[JackDee]

this one, as well as the monaco porto one in the cl, should both be very balanced affairs, but i fancy valencia to win the uefa, their teamwork is exeplary, their talent huge, and they've dominated primera division this year. To tell you the truth i wasn't that impressed with the french today, their defence was of course excellent, but wrt to the midfield and offense, well, it's just didier drogba, which at some points in the game, it seems to be enough.

 

[soccerbob]

Jack- That was excellent analysis on your part and I was glad you got there on that play. That's really a good example of how some of the strangest props to bet on can have a lot of value. Especially when someone does as much research on it as you obviously did. Nice job.